Financial results
1H 2021: our Bank’s best ever half year, driven by sharply growing commercial and financial results.
Highlights
Results at 30.06.2021
Risultati finanziari
Debt
Banca Generali has no financial debts, since the bank has never recurred to loans, bonds or subordinated loans
Market Outlook
The first quarter of the year was characterised by rallies by the major stock exchanges at the global level. Despite the spread of variants of the virus and thus of the third wave of cases, the markets benefited from the progress of the vaccination campaign, which made it possible to keep the estimates of expected gross domestic product growth at the global level at +5.6% for the current year. In particular, US and European GDP growth is forecast to amount to approximately +6.5% and +4%, respectively. After the sharp decline in 2020, the main investment firms estimate a recovery of inflation in both Europe and the USA.
As for the monetary policies implemented by the central banks, the Federal Reserve reiterated its commitment to keep interest rates low until at least 2023. In Europe, Christine Lagarde announced the continuation of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), stating that bond purchases would continue at a significantly higher rate in the upcoming quarter in order to contain an overly rapid increase in core government bond rates.
At the level of fiscal policy, in the US the American Rescue Plan Act, the huge 1.9 trillion dollars stimulus plan supported by newly elected President Biden, was approved. On 31 March, President Biden then announced a 2.25 trillion dollars, eight-year infrastructure plan, funded by an increase in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. In detail, the programme includes 620 billion dollars for transportation, 650 billion dollars to initiatives aimed at improving quality of life, 580 billion dollars for U.S. manufacturing and, finally, 400 billion dollars to care for the elderly and disabled.
The document containing the goals and reforms that the countries intend to implement with the Next Generation EU funds also continued to be formulated in Eurozone countries. The due date for submitting this document to Brussels has been set as 30 April 2021. Only then, with approval by the European Council, will European resources be available to the various countries in the euro area. Italy is the main beneficiary of the European Recovery Fund, with 209 billion euros, or approximately 28% of the funds allocated by the EU, set to be received.
During the first quarter, equity markets delivered positive returns of around ten percentage points in euro for developed countries and approximately 7% in euro for emerging markets. The main contribution to performance came from value stocks, particularly in the financial and energy sectors. Technology stocks — at a structural disadvantage in an environment of rising interest rates — recorded below-average performances. During the period, ESG stocks underperformed their benchmark indices, due mainly to their nature as growth stocks. However, sustainable investments will continue to benefit from the new European Union regulations, such as the recent SFDR (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation).
On bond markets, following the expectations of an increase in gross domestic product and expected rise in inflation in 2021, the quarter saw a steepening of the main international bond curves. In particular, ten-year US bonds rose from a yield of 0.91% to 1.75% and the German Bund from -0.58% to -0.33%. Spreads between European Monetary Union countries did not undergo significant changes, with the exception of the BTP-Bund spread, which went from 112 to 100 bps following the formation of the new government led by former ECB chairman Mario Draghi. Over the period, credit spreads continued to contract, reaching lows for the period due in part to the constant injection of liquidity from central banks. For example, spreads on high-yield bonds at the European level reached approximately 300 bps, whereas they had risen to 900 bps in the early months of the pandemic emergency.
On currency markets, the dollar appreciated against the euro, mainly due to greater expectations of growth in the United States. The euro-dollar exchange rate went from 1.22 to 1.17. The euro also depreciated by approximately 4% against the pound sterling, whereas it appreciated against the yen by approximately 3%. In this first part of the year, the general commodities index continued to show the uptrend that had begun in previous months. The recovery was mainly driven by the gradual recovery of economic activity following the launch of the global vaccination campaign. In particular, the index was driven by the rise in the price of oil (approximately +22%). On the other hand, gold continued its downtrend in the first three months of the year.
The main research institutions foresee a sharp rise in economic growth in the coming months, as indeed confirmed by the estimate of gross domestic product at the global level, expected to amount to just under 6%. The United States will grow at a faster pace than the Eurozone, due in part to the vaccination plan, which in the US is moving faster. Governments and central banks will continue to support the economy with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies. In the coming months, attention will need to be paid to any flare-ups of inflation, particularly in the United States. In addition, it will be fundamental that the vaccination campaign continue worldwide. Vaccines and their efficacy will remain one of the main drivers of financial markets in the coming quarter.
Business Outlook and Mega-trends
In 2021, the macroeconomic scenario will probably be characterised by generalised and synchronised growth, fuelled by the expected positive evolution of the pandemic. According to OECD estimates, next year’s global gross domestic product is expected to grow by 4.2%, supported by maintenance of the expansionary measures implemented by governments and central banks to support the entire economic system, even though particular attention will have to be paid to the level of public debt of the countries representing the main international economies. However, uncertainty about the results of the vaccination campaign and, consequently, of the evolution of the pandemic situation looms over these positive prospects.
In particular, in Europe, in order to support the recovery from the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic (estimated at + 3.6%), alongside the ultra-expansionary monetary policies, the so-called Recovery Fund, a 750 billion euro plan was approved, to save the countries most affected by the economic crisis caused by the Coronavirus. Among these, the largest beneficiary will be Italy where 2021 is expected to have good GDP growth and low inflation, accompanied by the risks of political instability and downgrade of public debt.
This macroeconomic scenario is overlaid with certain dynamics in the financial intermediation sector that increase its complexity and related risks, potentially impacting results. In particular, several potential impact dynamics persist:
- the complexity of a market characterised by low returns (with the resulting drive to take more risks);
- volatility and persistent negative rates;
- regulatory discontinuity (including the entry into force of the MiFID II Directive);
- the increasing relevance of technology as a factor for success in the business;
- the evolution of customers in terms of digital and financial literacy, as well as awareness of ESG issues.
In this context — which is certainly complex but not devoid of excellent growth opportunities — choices focusing on service and product innovation, implementation of stronger financial planning and advisory skills, the higher quality of the Bank’s network and the emphasis on internationalisation will continue to prove the winning elements for ensuring that Banca Generali enjoys sustainable growth and works to gain further market shares in the investment sector.
In light of the above, and consistently with the Industrial Plan, in 2021, which was the final year of the above-mentioned plan, the Banking Group will continue to focus its attention on households, strengthening its position as a private bank and increasing its commitment towards sustainability themes, while constantly ensuring greater dedication to developing bespoke solutions (in both investment products and advisory services).
Furthermore, in this context of economic growth prospects, the wide diversification of the aforementioned solutions, with tools ranging from private markets in support of the real economy and Italian SMEs to innovative thematic management, complete the spectrum of a unique offer in the advisory landscape in terms of depth, versatility and customisation possibilities.
In continuity with the projects launched at the beginning of the Industrial Plan, the main measures to be taken in 2021 will concern:
- improvement of the quality of the Financial Advisor network through both professional training for the existing network and the recruitment of high-profile, experienced professionals on the market;
- product innovation, with the goal of implementing a range of flexible financial services that may be tailored to each customer. Thanks to the development of wrappers and solutions with a high risk-yield correlation and consistent with the context defined by MiFID II. The commercial offer will also be increasingly based on the theme of sustainability and the possibility of offering concrete support to the real economy;
- development of new lines of business through the growth of AUC solutions, leveraging on the partnership with Saxo Bank in online trading and the expansion of lending, primarily in the form of the Lombard loan;
- the international expansion in Switzerland through the development of BG Valeur according to Banca Generali’s business model;
- enhancement of the comprehensive advisory service covering all of the customer’s wealth-related needs, in addition to advice concerning securities. Thanks to several exclusive partnerships, the Bank can provide advice concerning Real Estate, Wealth Planning and Generational Transfer, Corporate Finance and Family Office issues;
- digital innovation, with the aim of improving and expediting the Bank-Customer-Financial Advisor relationship, already implemented further during the pandemic;
- enhancement of the communication of a solid, innovative brand, including through the new social channels.
Also through the strategic decisions to strike new partnerships in areas with a strong technological component, improve process efficiency and develop the activities with the greatest added value for the network and customers, in 2021 the Bank will focus on containing the increase in costs to levels far below revenue growth. Moreover, the modest increase in costs will be primarily oriented to digital innovation and the development of useful products and services that help further improve the quality of advice provided to customers and the network’s productivity.